Confessional and disclaimer:
This is the original presentation, together with the scribbled notes
from which it originated. My talks are fairly shambolic - I use them to
stumble onto better, clearer ideas, rather than as the summary of
completed research. By the time you read this, I will have changed my mind
about everything contained herein.
I use Opera running on Debian Linux for presentations. Opera
has a cool projection
mode that I use: it's a trick I learnt from Steven
Pemberton of the W3C.
Other detritus in this directory:
SDForum International SIG
Divergence
Divergence:
How European and American tech markets are growing apart
and what kind of headache that gives me in the morning.
Who am I?
Best way to find out about anyone these days is Googlism.
Placeholder until Danny realises he needs to go back and click
on the link
British Lazy Stupid Journalist Wh*re
- British, not European "Fog in Channel; Continent
Isolated"
- Stupid: Most of what you see hear is just my stupid opinion
Not backed up with more indepth research than what I see and hear
No real Axe to Grind
- Lazy, I can't be bothered to explain that
- Whore: it's why I'm here.
British Lazy Stupid Journalist Wh*re
Actually from my homepage.
Ach, just google for it.
British Lazy Stupid Journalist Wh*re
Actually from my homepage.
Therefore, must be true.
British Lazy Stupid Journalist Wh*re
Actually from my homepage.
Therefore, must be true.
- British, not European (alas)
British Lazy Stupid Journalist Wh*re
Actually from my homepage.
Therefore, must be true.
- British, not European (alas)
- Stupid: Wild opinions, unsubstantiated with fact
British Lazy Stupid Journalist Wh*re
Actually from my homepage.
Therefore, must be true.
- British, not European (alas)
- Stupid: Wild opinions, unsubstantiated with fact
- Journalist: See "Stupid"
British Lazy Stupid Journalist Wh*re
Actually from my homepage.
Therefore, must be true.
- British, not European (alas)
- Stupid: Wild opinions, unsubstantiated with fact
- Journalist: See "Stupid"
- Wh*re: Why I'm here!
Why I'm Here
- Tech Columnist for London Sunday Times
- Moved to Silicon Valley in 2000
- Why?
- Technological Correspondent for London Sunday Times -
Moved to Silicon Valley in 2000 - Why? Because I'm Lazy
Why I'm Here
- Tech Columnist for London Sunday Times
- Moved to Silicon Valley in 2000
- Why? Because I'm lazy.
Wired UK
- British offshoot of Wired Magazine
- Launched 1995
- Bombed
- Hard to do, for lots of reasons
Some of which are explained
here
Living in the Future
- Wired aimed to be three months ahead of the trends
- Wired aimed to be 6 months ahead of the present - Three
months deadline - All work is trying to guess what everyone
else will be saying when your magazine comes out.
Living in the Future
- Wired aimed to be three months ahead of the trends
- Unfortunately, had three months lead time
- Wired aimed to be 6 months ahead of the present - Three
months deadline - All work is trying to guess what everyone
else will be saying when your magazine comes out.
Moore or Less's Law
- Europe, broadly speaking, is 18 months behind the US -
Some statistics http://www.cw.com.hk/News/n990413003.htm -
Got used to this as an idea
Moore or Less's Law
"Europe is, more or less, 18 months behind the US"
- Europe, broadly speaking, is 18 months behind the US -
Some statistics http://www.cw.com.hk/News/n990413003.htm -
Got used to this as an idea
Why I'm Here
- As LSJW, it's much easier to report on the news
- Easier to report on the future - From the future - Why
many of us are here.
Why I'm Here
- As LSJW, it's much easier to report on the news
- Eighteen months ahead of deadline
- Easier to report on the future - From the future - Why
many of us are here.
Reporting from the Future
- Movie ripping - Feb 2000
- 802.11b - July 2000
- IM clients - May 2001
- Broadband saturation - Aug 2002
- Roomba - Dec 2002
- 802.11b - July 2000 - Movie ripping - Feb 2000 - Instant
Messengers - May 2001 - Broadband saturation - Aug 2002 -
Roomba - Dec 2002
Something is Happening
Something is Happening
- In last year, magic has stopped working
Mobile Phones
- Britain/Europe always been "ahead"
- Obvious example - UK more advanced than US - Crossing
over into my territory
Mobile Phones
- Britain/Europe always been "ahead"
- I don't know what's happening over there now
- Obvious example - UK more advanced than US - Crossing
over into my territory
PC Ownership
- PC ownership, Internet penetration reaching saturation point:
- Stats show not always been this way
PC Ownership
- PC ownership, Internet penetration reaching saturation point
- Eighteen month lead a temporary phenomenon
Concealed in this graph is the most interesting point of the whole
talk, shamelessly stolen from
this
paper. It shows that up unitl 1994, PC adoption in the UK was
higher than in the US. A bit of info that always amazes my
American friends, but comes as no surprise to Sinclair-obsessed Gen
Xers.
DSL
- General perception in UK is DSL "better" in US
- British readership convinced it must be better over here
- Isn't. - Reaching saturation point at both sides
DSL
- General perception in UK is DSL "better" in US
- Not the case:
- Service and availability just as patchy
- No paradigm-changing experience in US
DSL
- General perception in UK is DSL "better" in US
- Not the case:
- Service and availability just as patchy
- No paradigm-changing experience in US
- Not the same as initial Internet growth
Eighteen months - a local blip?
- Feature of Internet uptake (and Net-led PC uptake)
- Internet caused this lead
- Internet growth now slowing
Quick recap
Internet: 18 Month Law - Temporary Blip - Internet caused
this lead - Lots of Internet stats are saturating
Something Else is Happening
The Internet Boom
- Started 18 months earlier in US
- Bad news travels quickly
- Ended simultaneously in UK
- Started 18 months earlier in US - Ended at exactly the
same time
I Don't Really Need To Be Here
I Don't Really Need To Be Here
- Internet is not just catching up
- ...Internet is shortcutting trends
Photoclip
- In more British stores than American - From Bulgaria -
Cheap!
The old rules don't apply
Stewart Alsop:
"Will we
learn how to text message like the Europeans? Maybe."
- The Register
http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/59/28854.html "Will we
learn how to text message like the Europeans? Maybe. But
will the Europeans start using email like we do?" asked
Alsop
The old rules don't apply
Stewart Alsop:
"Will we
learn how to text message like the Europeans? Maybe. But
will the Europeans start using email like we do?"
- The Register
http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/59/28854.html "Will we
learn how to text message like the Europeans? Maybe. But
will the Europeans start using email like we do?" asked
Alsop
Biggest synchronous event of all
Biggest synchronous event of all
9-11
- Seen everywhere - Of course all news events are
synchronous now - But so are reactions and conversations
9-11
- Seen everywhere
- All news is synchronous
- Seen everywhere - Of course all news events are
synchronous now - But so are reactions and conversations
9-11
- Seen everywhere
- All news is synchronous
- Discussion is synchronous - and global
- Seen everywhere - Of course all news events are
synchronous now - But so are reactions and conversations
Synchronisation and Divergence
- Internet causes synchronisation
Internet causes Synchronisation Synchronisation leads to
Divergence Divergence leads to hate Hate Leads To Suffering
Synchronisation and Divergence
- Internet causes synchronisation
- Synchronisation leads to divergence
Synchronisation and Divergence
- Internet causes synchronisation
- Synchronisation leads to divergence
- "Divergence leads to suffering"
Conclusions (if any)
There are no well-worn tracks any more
- International ramifications of Net were surprisingly predictable
- No longer: Net more diverse, more divergent.
We don't even know which simplification to pick
- Foreign markets were never simple.
- But now they (and we) can see their complexity
You don't have to be here.
You don't have to be there.
I have a headache.